AutoAsset Index

Porsche · Sports cars

Porsche sports cars at auction, read against macroeconomic conditions. Transaction-level data from every major public auction channel (online marketplaces monthly, live auction houses quarterly), joined with Federal Reserve rate, oil, credit, equity and currency series, and matched against five decades of past cycles.

How to read this tracker

What it is: A monthly read built from every Porsche sports car that sold or failed on Bring a Trailer, PCarMarket and Cars & Bids, plus the big live auction houses each quarter, read against interest rates, oil, stocks and currencies.
The gauge: Five phases. Overheated: prices hot, buyers paying up for ordinary cars. Normal: no warning signs. Early stress: demand softening while sellers hold asks. Capitulation: sellers cutting prices to get out. Bottoming: forced selling has passed. The gauge only moves when several signals show up together. The 2021 record: Overheated from May to September 2021, about nine months before prices peaked.
Prices: Each car compared only with its true peers (a 992.1 GT3 with other 992.1 GT3s). The last three months of sales are measured against the model's prior-year prices, so +8% means that model is selling 8% above its own recent history. Modified cars and private race cars are excluded.
Market activity: Closings, sell-through, no-reserve share, resales, attention per car, and private vs dealer share. More cars for sale while fewer sell is usually the first sign of softening.
Raw or seasonally adjusted: Auctions follow the calendar: January runs about a quarter below average, late summer well above. The toggle takes the seasonal swing out so a quiet January does not read as a slump. Prices are the same in both views; phase rules always use seasonally adjusted.
Economic backdrop: Each month is matched to a named pattern or to no clear pattern, describing the shape of the stress rather than a specific year. Easing, Stagflation risk, Government-debt stress, Credit crunch, Oil shock, Equity bear. If several qualify, the most specific wins and the others are flagged.
Signs and colors: Every change carries a + or − sign. Green or red shows a healthy or worrying direction. The small chart beside each reading tracks it over time with a dotted line at zero. Full definitions and sources are at the bottom.

No readings yet

The gauge needs three months of history before it calls a phase.

In brief

This month's readings

Market activity:

Every change carries a + or − sign. Sale count shown in parentheses when the reading rests on fewer than 25 sales.

Readings appear here after the first monthly pull.

More price groups, investment-grade vs driver-grade cars, and private vs dealer sales

What's ahead: the economic backdrop

Auction results show where the market is today; the economy shows where it may be heading. Money conditions usually reach collector cars months later. Four most critical channels: interest rates, stock prices, oil and inflation, and the dollar.

Economic backdrop this month

Waiting on macro readings

All economic readings

Macro risk gauges

Four graduated gauges, 0–100 each, built from composited macro and market indicators. Zones left to right: Clear (0–24), Watch (25–49), Approach (50–74), Confirmed (75–100). Each gauge composites multiple signals so a single acute reading cannot trip the gauge on its own. Component scores shown below each bar; see methodology for weights and formulas.

Scenario simulator

Move the sliders to see which pattern the engine prints under different conditions. Starts at this month's values. Government-debt stress depends on month-over-month changes and is not modeled here.

10-year Treasury— Brent crude ($/bbl)— Chicago Fed NFCIRISK— Nasdaq below ATH (%)—

Engine would print

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Threshold cheat sheet

Precedence: Credit crunch (NFCIRISK ≥ +0.5, Nasdaq ≥ −15%) → Stagflation (Brent ≥ $100, 10-yr ≥ 5%) → Oil shock (Brent ≥ $100, 10-yr < 4%) → Equity bear (Nasdaq ≥ −20%, Brent < $100, 10-yr < 5%) → Easing (Brent < $90, 10-yr < 4.9%) → No clear pattern.

Track record

Three macro readings tested against core Porsche prices since January 2021. Correlation of −1 would be a perfect inverse match; +1 a perfect match.

Headline

Core Porsche prices

Supporting

Core Porsche prices

Supporting

Core Porsche prices

Historical back-test

Every month since January 1973, colored by the pattern the engine would have printed. Gray bars mark the seven NBER-dated U.S. recessions. Government-debt stress is excluded (it depends on month-over-month changes). Proxy collector-market inflections (Mei-Moses All Art Index back to 1875, PCGS 3000 Rare Coin Index back to 1970) are marked above the strip; each sits on top of the pattern the engine was flashing at that date, as pre-2000 validation that the pattern classifications line up with real collector-market cycle turns.

How this chart is built

Oil thresholds are in September-2026 dollars (CPI-adjusted) so they apply the same across eras. 1979-82 Volcker/OPEC II reads as Stagflation; 1973-74 OPEC I reads mostly as Credit crunch because even in 2026 dollars oil only reached $81 that cycle (vs $162 real for OPEC II). Oil series: EIA/World Bank crude spot pre-1986, WTI 1986-01 to 1987-04, Brent from 1987-05.

Past cycles: how the economy and collector cars have moved together

1973 to 1975OPEC embargo and stagflation

The economy: OPEC's October 1973 embargo roughly quadrupled oil in a year, from about $3 to $12 per barrel. The S&P 500 fell about 48% from January 1973 to October 1974. CPI inflation reached 12.3% in December 1974. The U.S. recession ran from November 1973 to March 1975, and double-digit unemployment and inflation persisted together through most of the rest of the decade.
Collector cars: The vintage sports-car market was still a cottage trade in 1973 and prices do not have modern-style indexing, but contemporaneous accounts (Road & Track, Autoweek, Hagerty's own cycle histories) agree that nominal prices fell through 1974-75 and real prices stayed depressed through most of the 1970s. The next broad up-cycle did not begin until the mid-1980s.
Timing: The collector-car weakness coincided with the equity bear and oil shock rather than leading or lagging them, and recovery took most of a decade.

Sources: FRED (oil), FRED (CPI), FRED (S&P 500), NBER, Road & Track and Autoweek archives, Hagerty cycle histories.

1979 to 1982Volcker rate shock

The economy: Paul Volcker's Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to 20% in 1980-81 to break inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 15.3% in September 1981. Oil, pushed by the 1979 Iranian revolution, stayed above $35 for much of the period. The U.S. had a double-dip recession: January to July 1980 and July 1981 to November 1982.
Collector cars: The vintage market remained depressed through most of this stretch. Trade publications of the time report thin auction volumes, few new buyers, and real prices still below the mid-1960s. The post-Volcker recovery in collectibles only began mid-decade as rates fell and the economy accelerated.
Timing: The combination of very high rates and elevated oil kept the collector market subdued; recovery followed the broader economy out of recession in 1983-84 rather than leading it.

Sources: FRED (10-year), FRED (fed funds), FRED (oil), NBER, Federal Reserve historical minutes.

1989 to 1991The 1990 crash

The economy: A speculative boom fed by borrowed money and Japanese buyers. Japan's Nikkei peaked in December 1989. The U.S. recession began in July 1990, and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait doubled oil from about $18 to $36 by October.
Collector cars: The market peaked around late 1989. A benchmark Ferrari Daytona fell from about $500,000 to $125,000 by 1994, and one 250 GTO lost about 74%. A 365 GTC/4 offered at $140,000 in June 1990 sold for $75,000 in December 1991. Top cars took 15 to 20 years to recover.
Timing: Collector cars turned first, about eight months before the U.S. recession. They followed Japan's crash, not the U.S. economy.

Sources: Ferraris-Online, Ferraris-Online (250 GTO), Sports Illustrated, 1989, Hagerty, Nippon.com (Nikkei), NBER, FRED (oil)

2000 to 2003Dot-com bust

The economy: The Nasdaq Composite fell about 78% from its March 2000 peak to its October 2002 trough. The S&P 500 fell about 49% over the same window. The U.S. recession ran from March to November 2001; 9/11 extended the equity decline through 2002. Oil and interest rates were calm throughout.
Collector cars: The collector market was relatively insulated. Many high-end buyers were in traditional industries less exposed to the tech selloff, and the U.S. collector-car base in 2000-02 was smaller and older than today's. Monterey auction totals softened in 2001-02 but did not collapse. By 2003 the market was rebuilding; the broad up-cycle resumed through the mid-2000s.
Timing: The equity shock did not translate cleanly into a collector-car downturn, because the wealth channel was concentrated in tech workers rather than the collector-car buyer base. This is the archetype of an equity-bear pattern that does not become a collector-car event.

Sources: FRED (Nasdaq), FRED (S&P 500), NBER, Hagerty cycle histories, RM Sotheby's and Barrett-Jackson historical totals.

2007 to 2009The financial crisis

The economy: Stocks peaked in October 2007 and fell 57%. The recession began in December 2007, oil peaked at $134 in June 2008, and the Fed cut rates to zero in December 2008.
Collector cars: Hagerty's index peaked in April 2008 and fell 16% by August 2009. Muscle cars dropped about 40% while blue-chip European sports cars held their value. Monterey auction totals fell 12% from 2008 to 2009. Recovery took about three years.
Timing: About six months after stocks peaked, and before the fall 2008 crash.

Sources: Hagerty index via Wolf Street, Hagerty, Hagerty (recovery), Fortune, Yardeni (S&P 500), NBER, Federal Reserve

2014 to 2016Oil collapse and the first rate hike

The economy: Oil fell 71% from June 2014 to February 2016, stocks had two corrections of 12 to 13%, and the Fed raised rates in December 2015 for the first time in nearly a decade. There was no recession.
Collector cars: Hagerty's index peaked in August 2015. RM Sotheby's Monterey sale went from a record $172.9 million in 2015 to about $120 million in 2016. Scottsdale fell 15% in January 2016 with oil-industry buyers missing, and early 911s sold in greater numbers at 20% lower average prices. HAGI's Porsche index kept rising until November 2016.
Timing: The broad market turned about 14 months after oil began falling. Porsches turned about 11 months after the first rate hike.

Sources: RM Sotheby's, Zwischengas, CNBC, Octane (HAGI Porsche Index), Hagerty index via Wolf Street, Federal Reserve, FRED (oil)

2020 to 2022Pandemic and stimulus

The economy: The S&P 500 fell 34% from February 19 to March 23, 2020, then recovered to new highs by August. WTI crude futures briefly settled below zero on April 20, 2020. The Federal Reserve cut rates to zero and expanded its balance sheet by about $3 trillion in weeks; fiscal stimulus added trillions more. Inflation surged in 2021.
Collector cars: The collector market went parabolic from mid-2020. Bring a Trailer's annual sales grew from about $280M in 2019 to roughly $1.4B by 2023. Monterey auction totals set records in 2022 at about $471M across the week. In-demand modern Porsches (992 GT3, 911 R, S/T) ran well above sticker. Stimulus-era liquidity, work-from-home discretionary spending, and historically low rates created the conditions.
Timing: Collector cars led the broader asset recovery, bottoming in Q2 2020 and climbing through 2021 and most of 2022. This is the archetype of a shock cushioned by policy response: the normal downturn mechanics were overwhelmed by liquidity.

Sources: FRED (S&P 500), FRED (WTI), NBER, Federal Reserve, CNBC and Hagerty reporting on Bring a Trailer and Monterey totals.

2022 to 2024The rate-hike cycle

The economy: Stocks peaked in January 2022 and fell 25%. The Fed began raising rates in March 2022 and reached 5.25 to 5.50% by July 2023. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
Collector cars: Hagerty's market rating peaked in June 2022. Monterey auction totals went from a record of about $471 million in 2022 to $392 million in 2024. HAGI's top cars gained 25% in 2022, then fell 6% in 2023. On Bring a Trailer, the average price fell from $59,500 to $54,000 in 2023 while the number of cars sold rose 19%. Porsche auction volume fell 7.5% in the first half of 2023, and the average Carrera GT went from $1.8 million to $1.3 million.
Timing: The broad market turned about three months after the first hike. Porsches and top-end cars followed 10 to 15 months after it.

Sources: Hagerty, Axios, Magneto (Monterey, citing Hagerty), Knight Frank, Douglas Elliman (Knight Frank 2024), CNBC (Bring a Trailer), Classic.com, Federal Reserve, BLS

The pattern: half a century of cycles shows the shock type matters more than the fact of a shock. Oil-plus-rate shocks (1973-75, 1980, 1990, 2008-era) produced the deepest and longest corrections. Pure equity shocks (2001) barely touched collector cars when oil and rates stayed calm. Rate shocks on their own (2015-16, 2022-24) produced moderate corrections that recovered within a few years. Policy-cushioned shocks (2020) turned into bull markets.

Live auctions, quarterly

RM Sotheby's, Gooding, Bonhams and Broad Arrow, at hammer in U.S. dollars. Shown separately; does not feed the phase signals.

Quarterly results appear here after the first quarterly pull.

Quarter	Offered	Sold	Sell-through	Hammer	Median	Status

By house

House	Offered	Sold	Hammer

Coverage notes

Singer: a top-of-market watch

Porsche 964s reimagined by Singer Vehicle Design, at hammer, from every source the index reads. Singer Classic is the reading; Classic Turbo and DLS trade in a different price range and are listed separately. Shown for context; does not move the gauge.

Singer results appear here after the next pull.

Date	Car and venue	Result

Singer Classic Turbo and DLS sales

Date	Car and venue	Result

History

Monthly back to January 2021, newest first. Activity columns follow the Raw / Seasonally adjusted switch above.

Methodology

Version 4.3, October 2026. Readings are monthly. Market readings use closing values on the last trading day of the month. Auction readings cover auctions that ended during the calendar month.

Metric definitions

Price buckets

Scope: Porsche sports cars only: no SUVs, sedans or Taycans. Three core buckets cover model year 2016 and newer. Modern Used covers the 997.2, 987.2, 991.1 and 981 generations built before model year 2016. Classics covers every older generation, including the transaxle cars. Two specialty buckets cover all model years. Core buckets: Limited & Specialty: GT3 (including Touring), GT3 RS, GT4, GT4 RS, GT2 and GT2 RS, 911 R, S/T, 911 GT3 S/C, 911 Speedster, Sport Classic, Boxster Spyder and Spyder RS. Core 911: all other 911s. Core Boxster/Cayman: all other Boxsters and Caymans. The core model-year window is fixed, so bucket composition never shifts on a calendar date.
Modern Used and Classics: Modern Used: 997.2, 987.2, 991.1 and 981 cars before model year 2016, including their GT and limited versions. Classics: all older Porsche sports cars (for example 356, 912, 914, 911 through the 997.1, 986 and 987.1 Boxster and Cayman, 924, 944, 968, 928), excluding the Supercars and Factory Race buckets. Transaxle (924, 944, 968, 928) is also reported as its own reading because it is the bellwether for the bottom of the market. Where a generation spans the model-year 2016 line, its cars are split by bucket and each part is measured against its own history. None of these cars are measured against MSRP.
Specialty buckets: Supercars: Carrera GT, 918 Spyder and 959, all model years. Factory Race: factory-built race cars of all eras (for example 962, Carrera RSR, GT3 Cup, GT3 R, GT4 Clubsport, 935, RSR). Both are separate markets with low volume, so they use online and live-auction sales together, keep the same three-month window with sale counts flagged, are measured against their own history only, and are reported for context without feeding the phase signals. Price bands apply to every bucket.
Cohorts: Each bucket is split into cohorts by model, generation and version, body style (coupe, Targa, cabriolet, Speedster) and major variant (for example Carrera, Turbo, RS, Club Sport): for example 992.1 GT3, 991.2 GT3 RS coupe, G-body Carrera Targa, 993 Turbo. Cohorts are drawn this finely because that is how the market prices these cars, so a strong example of a lower-priced model is never scored against a more expensive one.
Bucket reading: For each cohort, the rolling three-month median sale price is compared with that cohort's trailing twelve-month median. The bucket reading is the sales-weighted average of those cohort changes, in percent. A reading of -5 means cars in that bucket are selling 5% below their own prices over the prior year.
Current version: Defined per model as its most recent version, whether .1 or .2 (for example the 992.2 GT3, or the 992.1 S/T where no later S/T exists). For each past month, the current version is the newest one that had reached three sales in a rolling window by then, so the 2021 readings use the cars that were new in 2021. Each model changes over on its own schedule. A new version enters the current-version readings once it has three or more sales in the rolling window; until then the prior version remains the reference, and the changeover is noted in that month's summary. The outgoing version moves to the own-history measure with its history intact.
Current-version premium: For the current version of each Limited & Specialty model only, every car is measured against the U.S. base MSRP for its own model year, at launch pricing. Options, destination fees and taxes are excluded. Known mid-year price changes are noted in the MSRP table but do not change the reference. Two readings use that same base. Real return: the sticker adjusted by CPI-U for the latest month published when the report is prepared (normally the month before the report month) ÷ CPI-U annual average for the calendar year before the model year. This fixed one-month lag avoids estimating unpublished inflation. Demand premium: the sticker adjusted by the cumulative change in the manufacturer's own base pricing from the car's model year to the latest model year, which removes factory price increases and leaves what buyers pay for scarcity. Earlier versions and generations are not measured against MSRP because their original sticker no longer anchors their market.
Sale price: Reported hammer price, excluding buyer's fees, on every platform so results are comparable. Unsold cars are excluded from price readings and counted in sell-through.
Duplicates and resales: A car that sells again within 90 days, for example on a second platform or after a deal fell through, is matched by VIN and counted once in price readings, at its final sale. Sales further apart are separate transactions and both count. A resale is a car Bring a Trailer marks as previously listed on its site, whether that earlier auction sold or not. A resale's price is measured within its cohort exactly like any other sale, never against its own earlier auctions. Resale price vs index compares stock resales with their cohort's rolling three-month median and needs at least three resales in scope to count toward a signal. No-reserve share counts first-time listings only. Earlier unsold auctions remain no-sales in the months they occurred. Version 3.2 replaced relists (cars whose earlier auction did not sell) with resales, because true relists turned out to be rare on Bring a Trailer: 24 of 348 previously listed cars from April to October 2026.
Porsche Pricing Index: Average percent change in U.S. base MSRP from one model year to the next, counting only models sold in both years so new or discontinued models do not register as price changes. The reading steps at each model year's U.S. launch, approximated as September 1 of the prior calendar year: a month before September of calendar year y reads the MY y change (from MY y−1 to MY y); from September onward the reading rolls to the MY y+1 change. Compared with CPI-U over the same period. Used to calculate the demand premium.
Price bands: Each stock sale is scored against its own cohort's trailing twelve-month median (sale price ÷ that median − 1). Across a bucket's sales in the rolling three-month window, the 90th percentile of those scores is the top band, the median is the middle, and the 25th percentile is the driver band. Scoring each sale against its own cohort lets rare and common cars be pooled without grading anything by hand. The reference median always uses the trailing twelve months and never widens, even when it rests on one or two sales; those scores are flagged with the reference count. A sale whose cohort had no sales in the prior twelve months has no score that month but still counts in sell-through. The quality spread is the top band minus the driver band. A spread widening while the driver band falls is a flight to quality; a spread widening because the top band rises while the driver band holds reads as top-end strength, not stress.
What counts as modified: Not modifications: paint protection film, window tint, ceramic coating, and Porsche accessories or parts offered for that model and generation, including factory wheels different from those the car was delivered with. Everything else that changes the car is a modification: tunes, aftermarket exhausts, aftermarket wheels, suspension, body, engine and similar.
Modified cars: Any modification from factory specification moves a car out of the stock data set, so a handful of well-built cars selling at twice market cannot skew a stock category. Classification follows each listing at the time of sale: a car returned to stock specification and listed again is classified as stock on that listing. Modified cars are tracked separately in three groups. Named builders (for example Singer, Theon Design, Gunther Werks): each builder measured only against its own history. Documented builds: a named builder or shop plus stated build records and method, measured against their own history and marked low confidence. Undocumented builds: counts and sell-through only, never priced. Modern modified cars are also tagged by type: emissions-affecting without a stated CARB Executive Order number, emissions-affecting with one, premium aftermarket wheels (for example HRE or Apex), other aftermarket wheels, and other modifications. For each tag, the modification discount is the median sale price of tagged cars against the stock median for their cohort, marked low confidence. Modified groups use the same rolling three-month window as stock cohorts, compared with the prior twelve months and flagged with sale counts; they are reported quarterly and do not feed the phase signals.
Race cars: Purpose-built race cars are excluded from both the stock and modified sets, except factory-built race cars, which make up the Factory Race bucket.
Thin data: The window never widens, because rare cars can move sharply within months. A cohort with one or two sales in the rolling three-month window is still published and flagged with its sale count. A cohort with no sales in the window has no reading that month and is shown as no sales, never as zero. Every reading uses actual sales; nothing is carried forward or estimated. Resale sell-through is flagged as thin below five resales. History is reconstructed from archived public results back to January 2020, so readings start in January 2021 with a full prior year behind them.

Phase and path rules

Baseline: Market activity and premium readings are compared with the average of up to six prior months. At least three months of history are required before a phase is called. Activity readings (closings, sell-through, no-reserve share, resale share, watchers, comments and private-party share) are seasonally adjusted before any rule is applied.
Overheated: Calibrated on one historical episode (May to September 2021); thresholds will be reviewed as more cycles accumulate. Two or more heat signals plus at least one speculation signal, with no capitulation and fewer than two stress signals, AND the same entry conditions met the prior month (soft two-month gate added in v4.5 to kill one-off flashes). Once on, it stays on while at least one heat signal and one speculation signal remain. Heat signals: core prices (Limited & Specialty, Core 911, Core Boxster/Cayman, Modern Used and Classics together) 15%+ above their prior-year prices; sell-through 85%+ while closings run 10%+ above the six-month average; GT & limited models' premium over their trailing-year typical price up 10+ points from the six-month average; easy money (10-year yield below its level six months earlier with the Nasdaq within 2% of its record). Speculation signals: driver-grade cars across the core groups selling within 5% of their model's prior-year median; transaxle models 20%+ above their prior-year prices; private parties 65%+ of Bring a Trailer and Cars & Bids closings; watchers per car up 8%+ from the six-month average. Calibrated on January 2021 to September 2026, the rule flags May to September 2021 and no other month. Bids per car, comments per car, private vs dealer prices and resale share were tested and did not mark the 2021 run-up, so they are shown but do not count toward the phase. The sample holds one boom, so these thresholds will be reviewed as data accumulates.
Early stress: Two or more of: sell-through down 5+ points, closings up 15%+ while bids per sale fall 10%+, any core bucket 8%+ below its twelve-month median, the Transaxle reading 8%+ below its twelve-month median, GT & limited models' premium down 8+ points from the six-month average, manufacturer pricing flat or down year over year, Nasdaq 15%+ below its high, resale share up 5+ points, flight to quality (in any core bucket, Modern Used, Classics or Transaxle, the quality spread widening 8+ points against baseline while the driver band falls 5+ points against its baseline). Or any single capitulation signal.
Capitulation: Two capitulation signals, or one plus two stress signals. Capitulation signals: resale sell-through up 15+ points while resales sell 5%+ below their cohort's median (a jump in resale sell-through at or above market prices reads as healthy turnover, not capitulation), first-run no-reserve share up 8+ points, or Limited & Specialty 15%+ below its twelve-month median while closings rise 15%+.
Bottoming: Capitulation within the last three months and no capitulation signals this month.
Track record: Three macro readings tested against the sales-weighted core Porsche price reading over the 2021-01 to 2026-10 window. Panels were selected from a grid of eight macro series tested across lags 0 through 12 months (roughly 100 series-by-lag combinations). To correct for the resulting multiple-comparison risk, qualifying thresholds in v4.5 are **|r| ≥ 0.65 full period AND |r| ≥ 0.45 in both halves of the window with the same sign** (raised from v4.1's 0.5/0.3 bar). The headline panel is the single reading that clears those bars most strongly. The current panels are NFCIRISK (Chicago Fed, credit and volatility stress sub-index, at a four-month lead), the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread (contemporaneous), and Brent crude at an eight-month lead. Each panel publishes its full-period correlation, both sub-period correlations, and the n for each. Caveat: correlations are drawn from a 2021-2026 window that holds one complete market cycle (2021 bubble, 2022-24 correction); readings may degrade out-of-sample as more cycles accumulate. The current block replaces the 10-year-yield-at-six-month-lead chart from v4.0, which failed the sub-period stability bar once it was tested across both halves of the window.
Economic backdrop: Six named patterns plus a no-clear-pattern fallback. Oil thresholds are in September-2026 dollars (CPI-U adjusted); current readings use nominal oil since the reference frame is today, and historical back-tests use real-dollar oil so the thresholds apply the same way across eras. Easing: Brent under $90 (real) and the 10-year under 4.9%. Stagflation risk: Brent at or above $100 (real) and the 10-year at or above 5%. Government-debt stress: 10-year at or above 5% and up 15+ basis points in a month while Brent falls 5%+ and the dollar weakens 0.5%+ against at least four of five majors (euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, yuan), including the franc. Credit crunch: Chicago Fed NFCIRISK at or above +0.5 (noticeable above-average credit-and-volatility stress) with the Nasdaq at or below 15% from its record high. Oil shock: Brent at or above $100 (real) with the 10-year under 4%. Equity bear: Nasdaq at or below 20% from its record high with Brent under $100 (real) and the 10-year under 5%. Precedence, most specific to least: credit crunch, government-debt stress, stagflation risk, oil shock, equity bear, easing, no clear pattern. If several patterns qualify in the same month, the primary read follows the precedence and the others are listed in the panel. The dollar falling against the franc while gold rises 3%+ is flagged as safe-haven flight. A 4%+ one-month rise in the yen flags carry-trade unwind risk; a 5%+ one-month fall in the peso flags risk-off stress; both together flag a carry unwind. A 4%+ move in the Canadian dollar is flagged for cross-border buying power. The broad dollar index is context only.
Seasonal adjustment: For each activity reading, each month's value is compared with a centered twelve-month moving average, and the median for each calendar month across 2020 to 2026 becomes that month's seasonal factor (a ratio for counts and per-car figures, a point difference for shares). Factors are recalculated each January. Prices are not adjusted; they show no meaningful seasonal pattern.
Thresholds: Stress and capitulation thresholds are judgment-based starting points drawn from prior market cycles; Overheated thresholds are calibrated on 2021 to 2026 results. All will be reviewed as data accumulates. Changes will be noted with a new methodology version.
Macro risk gauges (v5.0): Four graduated gauges (Stagflation, Credit crunch, Oil shock, Equity bear) replacing the binary ON/OFF pattern labels with 0–100 scores. Each gauge is a weighted composite of multiple macro and market indicators so a single acute reading can't trip the gauge on its own. Scoring: each component scaled linearly from "clear" (score 0) through "watch" (50) to "confirmed" (100); the gauge is the weighted sum across components. Status bands match the visual zones 1-for-1: 0–24 Clear, 25–49 Watch, 50–74 Approach, 75–100 Confirmed. Component weights and thresholds: Stagflation (Brent oil real-$ 30% [clear $70, confirmed $100]; 10-year 30% [clear 4.0%, confirmed 5.0%]; T10Y3M inversion 20% [clear +0.5, confirmed −0.5]; dollar 3mo weakening 20% [clear 0, confirmed −3%]). Credit crunch (NFCIRISK 30% [clear −0.3, confirmed +0.5]; HY credit spread 30% [clear 3.0, confirmed 8.0]; HY spread 3mo change 20% [clear 0, confirmed +2.5]; VIX 20% [clear 20, confirmed 35]). Oil shock (Brent oil 40% [clear $70, confirmed $100]; oil 6mo change 30% [clear 0%, confirmed +15%]; 10-year inverted 20% [clear 5.0%, confirmed 3.5%]; dollar 3mo strength 10% [clear 0, confirmed +3%]). Equity bear (Nasdaq % below ATH 40% [clear 8%, confirmed 20%]; RSI(14) 20% [clear 60, confirmed 30]; 50/200-day MA cross state 20% [golden 0, neutral 50, death 100]; VIX 10% [clear 20, confirmed 35]; HY credit spread 10% [clear 3.5, confirmed 7.0]). Weights are round-number, principled, and not optimized on the back-test to avoid overfitting. Thresholds use the same thresholds the original pattern engine used, with the "watch" tier at the midpoint. The composite scoring will be refined as more cycles accumulate.
Version history: 5.1 (Nov 2026): Economic backdrop panel now reads from the v5.0 gauges. The old binary pattern engine (oil ≥ $100 AND 10-year ≥ 5% for Stagflation, etc.) is retired; it was prone to the exact "6-bp miss, no pattern" failure the gauge rebuild was designed to fix. The Economic backdrop pattern label now shows the top-scoring gauge's name, status and score (e.g. "Stagflation risk — Watch (upper) · 58"). The needle moves continuously within the Recession risk zone based on the top gauge's score. "No clear pattern" now means every gauge is below the Watch threshold (score < 25). Government-debt stress remains a separate event signal (yields rising while oil falls and dollar weakens broadly) and is flagged when its conditions hit; it has not yet been converted to a composite gauge.
5.0 (Nov 2026): Macro risk gauges introduced. Four composite 0–100 gauges (Stagflation, Credit crunch, Oil shock, Equity bear) replace the binary ON/OFF pattern labels as the primary macro backdrop reading. Each gauge composites 4–5 well-established market and macro indicators (yield curve, HY credit spreads, VIX, broad USD, RSI, 50/200-day MA cross, drawdown) so a single acute reading can't trip the gauge, and leading indicators (HY spreads lead NFCIRISK, RSI leads drawdown) fire earlier than the single-condition rules did. The current ON/OFF pattern label (shown in the Economic backdrop panel above) remains as a shorthand summary; the gauges carry the detailed, forward-looking read. New data fields added to each monthly row: rsi, ma50, ma200, crossState, vix, hySpread, hySpread3mChg, usdBroad3mChg, oil6mChg. HY credit spread history is limited to Nov 2023 forward (FRED retention policy); pre-2023 back-test gauges substitute Moody's BAA10Y as a long-history proxy. Pipeline for new fields is live at Nov 2 pull; backfill of intra-month extremes (rsiMin, vixMax, drawdownMax) scheduled for the Dec 5 pull.
4.5 (Nov 2026): Methodology QA pass. (1) PPI reading renamed "Porsche base MSRP, year over year" so the label reflects what it measures (base sticker, no options loading). (2) Overheated phase requires the entry conditions met for two consecutive months (soft gate) to kill one-off flashes; the calibration caveat ("one historical episode, May to September 2021") promoted from the Thresholds note into the Overheated reading itself. (3) Transaxle signals (speculation 20%+ above prior year, stress 8%+ below) only count when `nTX ≥ 50` for the month, so a thin-month sample can't fire the rule. (4) Track-record panel qualifying thresholds raised to |r| ≥ 0.65 full period / 0.45 each half (from 0.5 / 0.3) to Bonferroni-correct for the grid search across series × lags, with a published caveat that the correlations are drawn from a one-cycle window and may degrade out-of-sample. (5) Pre-2000 back-test now shows proxy-market inflection markers above the pattern strip: Mei-Moses All Art Index (back to 1875) and PCGS 3000 Rare Coin Index (back to 1970) peaks and troughs sit on top of the pattern the engine was flashing at those dates, as validation that the pattern classifications line up with real collector-market cycle turns before the automotive collector market was indexed. (6) Seasonal factors to use a trimmed median (drop max and min cycle before taking median per calendar month) when ≥ 7 cycles are available, so a bubble or bust year can't single-handedly skew a seasonal factor; lands with the Dec 5 pull.
4.4 (Nov 2026): Retired the two "over sticker" readings (hypePrem and demandPrem). Both compared sale prices to base MSRP without options loading, and mixed model years so older cars appreciating from lower launch stickers inflated the headline against what today's buyers actually pay over new-car MSRP. The equivalent "GT trading hot" and "GT cooling" signals now key off the GT & limited models reading (sales vs their trailing-year typical price), which is apples-to-apples because both sides are actual sales including options. hypePrem and demandPrem remain in the data file for continuity but are no longer displayed or used in phase rules.
4.3 (Oct 2026): Oil thresholds CPI-adjusted to September-2026 dollars for historical back-tests. 1979-82 Volcker/OPEC II now reads as Stagflation across 46 months; 1973-74 OPEC I stays outside the stagflation threshold because real oil only reached $81 that cycle vs $162 for OPEC II.
4.2 (Oct 2026): Named-pattern vocabulary decoupled from specific years. "1990 pattern" renamed "Stagflation risk." Added Credit crunch, Oil shock, Equity bear. Precedence published. Past-cycles library extended with 1973-75, 1980, 2001 and 2020.
4.1 (Oct 2026): Track-record chart replaced with a three-panel block (NFCIRISK, 10-year minus 3-month spread, Brent at 8-month lead). PPI display timing fixed to step at MY launch rather than Jan 1. Gold 2021 backfilled; 2026-08 corrected. Government-debt-stress precedence over 1990 pattern clarified.
4.0 (Oct 2026): Overheated phase added. Activity rules use seasonally adjusted readings. History rebuilt back to January 2021. Duplicate sales limited to the same car selling again within 90 days.
3.2: Resales replaced relists.

Data sources

Singer watch: Porsche 964s reimagined by Singer Vehicle Design, from every online and live source the index reads, at hammer. Singer Classic: median sale price over the last twelve months against the twelve months before, with counts offered and sold. Classic Turbo and DLS (Dynamics and Lightweighting Study) cars are listed separately and kept out of the Classic reading. Identified by title (“by Singer”, “Reimagined by Singer”). Display only: it does not feed any phase signal. Live-auction Singer results start in 2021.
Online auction results (monthly): Bring a Trailer (bringatrailer.com), PCarMarket (pcarmarket.com) and Cars & Bids (carsandbids.com) completed Porsche auctions. Public results only. Market activity readings (closings, sell-through, no-reserve share, resale share, resale sell-through, bids, comments and watchers per car) use Bring a Trailer alone for consistency, Porsche sports cars only; price buckets use all three. Bids, comments, watchers, views, seller type and VIN come from each listing page (23,248 Bring a Trailer and 2,652 Cars & Bids pages since January 2020). Private-party share and private vs dealer prices use Bring a Trailer and Cars & Bids. Page views are recorded but never used, because they are easy to inflate with automated traffic.
Live auction results (quarterly): RM Sotheby's, Gooding, Bonhams and Broad Arrow public results, reported as a separate quarterly reading and not blended into monthly signals, because their sales cluster around event weekends. Prices are converted to hammer by removing each house's published buyer's premium for that sale. Gooding publishes sold lots only, so quarterly sell-through leaves Gooding out. Cars sold after the auction count as sold, since they are still market transactions; their prices are included only when published. Quarters with incomplete published results are marked partial rather than estimated. History runs from Q1 2021. Each quarterly pull re-checks the prior quarter's results pages, since houses often post after-auction sales weeks later. A car offered without selling that later appears for sale elsewhere is matched by VIN and counted as sold; its price is included only if published.
No-sale bids: Bid amounts on unsold cars are never used in any calculation, on any platform. An unsold car counts only as a no-sale.
Base MSRP: Porsche Cars North America published U.S. base MSRP by model and model year.
Inflation: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted.
10-year Treasury yield: Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates, 10-year constant maturity.
Brent crude: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price FOB.
Exchange rates: Federal Reserve H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates: euro, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Chinese yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar, plus the nominal broad dollar index.
Gold: LBMA Gold Price PM, U.S. dollars per troy ounce, as republished by SD Bullion (operational source of record) and United Precious Metal Refining. LBMA is the benchmark administrator; readings are the last London trading day's PM fix each month, with Q3 2026 cross-checked against LBMA's own quarterly market report.
Past cycles: Federal Reserve, BLS, NBER, FRED and Yardeni Research for the economy; auction houses, Bring a Trailer, HAGI (via Knight Frank and Octane), Classic.com and the business press for collector cars. Hagerty is cited only in this section, for facts from before October 2024, each one attributed and linked. It never feeds any reading or signal on this page.
Nasdaq: Nasdaq Composite official close, measured against its record close.

Published by AutoAsset.AI, the data layer for the collector-vehicle market. Byline: Brian Flippo, founder and principal. Updated monthly after each month closes. Market readings for information only; not investment advice.